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Predicting credit downgrades
Firms’ credit rating is one of the key parameters in investment, financial and operational
decision making. Your company asked you to assist in the company’s risk evaluation using a
dataset of firms that the company in may consider for investment. The dataset includes financial
variables, online activity data (i.e. Google Trends and Wikipedia stats), the current rating of the
firm (marked as “RatingRank”), and whether this rating reflects a downgrade from the last
rating (marked as “Downgrade” in the dataset). Your training dataset (“events_training.csv”)
include over 2700 records of previous events. Your goal is to estimate if the firm will be
downgraded in a new dataset (“events_test.csv”) with 400 records, where you have all the
attributes but not the RatingRank or the Downgrade values (these measures were set to 1 for all
these new records but don’t reflect the actual Downgrade value for the 400 records).
a. Describe the data preparation, the models you created (provide screenshots), and the different input parameters. Run different prediction models in RapidMiner with different variables.
b. Choose the best model and apply it on the new records events_test.csv file. Save the results as a csv file
a. Describe the data preparation, the models you created (provide screenshots), and the different input parameters. Run different prediction models in RapidMiner with different variables.
b. Choose the best model and apply it on the new records events_test.csv file. Save the results as a csv file
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Answers
Dortmund, Germany